Know before you pick

Home crowd boost. Quarterfinal is the ceiling — a fair last-16 bet.

Son's last dance. Solid Group A second-place pick.

Dark horse — they pushed Nigeria close at AFCON. Group exit is realistic.

First-timers feel after a long absence. Tough to back beyond groups.

Home turf + Davies/David make them dangerous. R16 is plausible.

Reliable group-stage advance machine. Cap at QF.

Improved since 2022 but still a step below. Group exit likely.

Romantic story (Džeko at 40). Group stage ceiling.

Ancelotti + Vini/Rodrygo/Endrick = title pick. Bracket them deep.

Africa's torchbearer after their 2022 run. QF very live.

Sentimental return. Beating Brazil is a tall order; group exit likely.

Story of the tournament if they advance. Underdogs in every match.

Home crowd + Pulisic/Pepi/McKennie. QF is the target.

Alfaro got them organized. Group runners-up is in play.

Hard to beat, hard to score against. Group exit most likely.

Talent-loaded young core. Group runners-up + R16 upset live.

Reborn under Nagelsmann (Euro 2024 QF). Semifinal-level pick.

Young core matured. R16 is fair.

Reigning African champions. Group stage advance very likely.

Smallest nation ever at a WC. Magic if they get out of groups.

Always a QF threat. Semifinal plausible if the draw opens.

Asia's best. QF is the breakthrough target.

Could nick a result but group exit is the base case.

Potter + Isak/Gyökeres is a fun combo. R16 sneakily live.

Golden generation's last shot. QF realistic, semis a stretch.

Hard out, but Iran has never escaped groups. Maybe this time.

Salah's swan song. Group exit unless Salah carries them.

Tournament tourists. Group stage exit highly likely.

Euro 2024 winners + Yamal magic = co-favourites for the title.

Bielsa-ball + Valverde/Núñez/Pellistri. Dark horse for the semis.

Renard returning. They stunned Argentina in 2022 — can spoil.

Smallest population to ever qualify. Romantic group-stage run.

Mbappé/Dembélé/Doué. Title co-favourites.

AFCON-pedigree squad. R16 likely, QF a stretch.

Haaland's WC debut. Anything below QF is a disappointment.

Inspirational qualification. Group stage exit most likely.

Defending the crown with Messi (likely) + Álvarez/Mac Allister. Top-4 pick.

Rangnick's group is well-drilled. R16 very plausible.

Talented but inconsistent. Group exit/R16 toss-up.

Asian Cup runners-up in 2024. Charming debut, group exit expected.

Ronaldo's farewell + a stacked squad (Vitinha/Leão/Neves). Semis live.

Copa 2024 runners-up. QF very much in play.

First-ever qualification. Hard to back beyond groups.

Underrated squad. Could surprise in groups.

Tuchel + Bellingham/Saka/Foden/Kane. Title contenders, no excuses.

Aging core but battle-tested. R16/QF realistic.

Improved since 2018 (Copa SF in 2024). Group exit base case.

Kudus is must-watch. R16 sneaky if Kudus catches fire.